south asia politics

Its hard to separate hysteria from fact if you're trying to read about who is responsible for the mass murder in Mumbai. I've been following Indian online newspapers closely over the past several days. I've found palpable hostility toward Pakistan (understandably, perhaps?) as well as very biased coverage.

Yesterday, the main headline on the Times of India website was about a Pakistani television host who declared that the Mumbai attacks were led by "Hindu Zionists." The story made you think that such opinons are common in Pakistan. I admit that I don't have any idea what's being said on Pakistani television lately, but I have been reading the coverage of mainstream newspapers-- and the opinions of that one television host just don't reflect what I've seen. My sense is that Pakistanis are alternating between deep sympathy for Mumbaikars and agitation because they perceive that the United States and India have been too quick to implicate Pakistan.

So as news continues to break about the source of the attacks, how should we evaluate Pakistan's level of involvement ?

Here are some issues that I think are important to consider:

The attacks were launched from Pakistani territory. The attackers came from Karachi and arrived in Mumbai over water.
The nationality of individual militants is a peripheral issue. What matters more is who sponsored them. Some of the September 11 hijackers were Egyptian, but this turned out to be fairly irrelevant in assigning responsibility to Al-Qaeda. Nevertheless, there is one known surviving militant from the attacks. Rumor is that he is Pakistani. He does look South Asian, at least, and his name seems Pakistani enough... but Pakistani Prime Minister Asif Ali Zardari said on Larry King Live that there is no proof that the guy is Pakistani. (He did not sound believable, in case you are wondering...).
Some U.S. intelligence officials have said that the Pakistan-based terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba may be responsible for the attacks. However, Condoleezza Rice said yesterday that it was premature to attach repsonsibility for the attacks on any one organization. She also urged Pakistan to be cooperative and transparent in investigations. Uncharacteristially, LeT has not accepted responsibility yet.
Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI, has supported Islamic militant groups in the past, including Lashkar-e-Taiba. In the 1990's, material state support for these groups was part of the government's strategy to end Indian control in Kashmir. (This is documented in interviews of militants and ISI officials themselves). In 2001, LeT sponsored the attack on the Indian Parliament. However, LeT has been a banned terrorist organization since 2002 and the Pakistani government under Musharraf ended state support for militant organizations, under strong pressure from the United States. In 2007 and 2008, there were a series of NYT articles and interviews (like this one) reporting that these organizations were still active, and the Pakistani government had, to a large extent, lost control of their activities.
The Pakistani government is very fragmented, with deep disagreement among agencies and leaders about the nature of relations with India. Soon after the attacks, Prime Minister Gilani offered to send the head of Pakistan's intelligence services to India, but the offer was rescinded. This likely means that Gilani's government doesn't have full control over the intelligence services, and there are intelligence and army officials who, for whatever reasons, do not want to cooperate with India. Also, the different wings of the ISI have simultaneously fought against and supported Islamic militant organizations within Pakistan.
In the case of Pakistan, the line between the state and non-state actors can be fuzzy. Zardari said on Larry King that non-state actors are responsible for the Mumbai attacks. We don't know yet if that is true or not, but it can't be denied that the fragmented nature of the Pakistani government and the differing opinions on patronage to militant organizations really blurs the line between state and non-state actors.

So given all this, I wil speculate that the civilian, elected Pakistani government probably was not involved with the attacks, but it is possible that parts of the army or ISI were. For the people of Pakistan, these attacks are a terrible development. Increased tensions with India are very risky; besides provoking conflict with a much stronger military power, they divert funds from domestic spending on things like infrastructure and education and they lower Pakistan's international standing significantly. The only part of Pakistan that has an existential need to continue conflict with India is the army. If India is not a major, active threat, what is the purpose of an overly large conventional army?

Finally, I don't think the Pakistani electorate--the people--should be held responsible for the actions and machinations of the army. In the United States, the military has strong civilian oversight and coordination with the elected government... and while it is mobilized by this government, we have all seen that even its actions are sometimes out of sync with public opinion and the judgement of the State Department and elected officials. In Pakistan, the army does not reflect the state as a whole or the desires of the people in this way, but it is by far the most powerful political player.

I think these lines of reasoning are logical, but I do know that I am just speculating. With all the conflicting reports around, and with access to only soundbites and leaks from government officials, all anyone can do, so far, is guess.